Here’s what you need to know:
- July 1st Price: $0.10528
- July 8th Price: $0.10503
- Market Cap: $2.04B
- Change: -0.24%
Technical & Sentiment:
- Price support at $0.10 has held firm - XLM price may be at a short term low
- XLM sentiment has also hit a lull. A positive XLM headline could drive sentiment and price higher
Positive Price Drivers:
- Developers are creating engaging apps to attract new retail users to Stellar
- Mobile Stellar payments don’t need the internet anymore creating opportunities for use in areas with poor internet access
Negative Price Drivers:
- Stellar hasn’t created additional B2B partnerships - which are critical to its success
- Neither Stellar nor IBM blockchain have commented on the departure of Stellar’s point of contact at IBM - creating uncertainty
In this issue:
- Price Reports: Stellar traded sideways (-0.24%), underperforming Bitcoin (+9.12%) and Ethereum (+2.15%). However Stellar has outperformed its most direct competitor, Ripple (-2.64%)
- Technical Analysis: XLM defends $.010 support - Will it rise?
- Stellar's Not So Starry Year: What does 2H 2019 have in store for Stellar?
Stellar Price Drivers:
- #1: Stellar makes Crypto Fun
- #2: Stellar leaps over the traditional digital asset hurdle - weak connectivity.
- #3: Stellar now allows the trading of Real Estate - not just digital assets
- Sentiment Analysis: XLM sentiment down for two weeks - is this the bottom?
- What Twitter is Saying: Mixed reviews
- Funny Crypto Memes: Even Elon Musk would approve of these
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Stellars Not So Starry Year:
In 2018 Stellar briefly became the #5 cryptocurrency in the world, but it has since fallen to #12. It’s clear Stellar has lost its shine. BTC is up 200.24% this year while Stellar is down 11.49%, but why?
Stellar’s weak year can be attributed to its inability to live up to the hype. Partnerships with IBM and UNICEF seems to be fizzling out, listing on Coinbase did virtually nothing for the price, and the rumor that XLM would be the technology upon which Facebook’s Libra would be built ended up being false. The people using Stellar in 2019 are the same as those who used it in 2018 - with virtually no significant adoption.
We expect Stellar to continue to underperform through 2019 - despite this week’s positive news.
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XLM Price Analysis: Stellar price is expected to trade sideways or at a slight gain over the next 7 days.
- XLM has traded between $0.10 and $0.11 throughout the week
- Support at $0.10 held, indicating a short term low
- XLM price may rise as BTC price does but will likely underperform BTC
- Resistances are at $0.1058 (3) then $0.122
- Supports are at $0.10 (2) and $0.104 (1)
Although XLM prices may rise, investors are better served by putting money into BTC or ETH rather than XLM for now.
XLM Price Drivers This Week:
#1 Stellar makes Crypto Fun
Litemint is pioneering decentralized, cross-currency in-app purchases with instant games. Croupier is a Stellar based gambling bot building pots around a simple coin flip. Masmic allows clients to earn Stellar by answering questions.
Tradecipher Take: Getting retail users to adopt the Stellar protocol - which primarily focuses on institutional customers - may require making crypto fun. 2.3 B people worldwide play mobile games - and people who become used to XLM wallets through gaming will be more likely to rely on XLM for other function. This could make cryptocurrency wallets the new Facebook login. If Stellar can make adopting crypto user-friendly and engaging, they could grow their user base exponentially.
XLM Price Drivers This Week:
#2 Stellar leaps over the traditional digital asset hurdle - weak connectivity
Digital assets typically require the internet to work - Stellar’s new integration with BeBound removes that hurdle by using SMS.
Tradecipher Take: Cryptocurrency is incredibly useful to people who lack access to a stable, trustworthy financial system. However, access to cryptocurrency has generally required access to the internet.
While people in emerging markets overwhelmingly have smartphones, they may live in areas with poor internet connectivity. Users with the BeBound application can send and receive secure, mobile payments without internet access - providing people in the developing world access to digital payments - and all the benefits they convey.
XLM Price Drivers This Week:
#3 Stellar now allows the trading of Real Estate - not just digital assets
Smartlands opens funding on UK’s first tokenized Real Estate sale built on Stellar protocol
- Property is valued at £12M - approximately $15M
Tradecipher Take: Tokenizing real-world assets provides retail investors with access to investment opportunities traditionally reserved for institutions, while providing those institutions with desperately needed liquidity.
Smartlands tokenized property deal serves as an important test case. If XLM can reliably act as a highway for real-world assets, its demand will skyrocket as institutions flock to the Stellar Protocol.
Sentiment: Over the past two weeks, Stellar price and sentiment have significantly declined (1) since the news that its key partnership with IBM may be unstably broke. Both sentiment and price have hit a low and are set to rebound.
- Positive headlines about partnership developments will negate IBM fears and could drive a spike in price and sentiment
What Twitter is Saying:
@imBagsy with 18.8k users is asking his followers given XLM/BTC has hit its ICO price, is it finally a buy?
@Pastore1314 with 2,934 followers believes the descending wedge may finally break to the upside.
Not Everyone is so Positive Thought:
@BobLoukas with 21.2k followers noted how weak XLM performance has been compared to BTC and believes XLM will continue to move down in price.
@MihirNaik19 with 1,278 followers believes XLM/BTC has further downside and could fall to the final support (if not further).
Thanks for reading this far! Here are some dank memes:
That’s it for the XLM weekly report from July 1 - July 8, 2019. Make sure to subscribe to get Tuesdays EOS report. Full reports are free until July 9, 2019, at which they will only be available for Tradecipher Members.
Additional Readings And Sources
#1: Stellar makes Crypto Fun
#2: Stellar leaps over the traditional digital asset hurdle - weak connectivity.
#3: Stellar now allows the trading of Real Estate - not just digital assets